Do Syrian Communities Perceive Former IS Combatants as a Threat?
Mixed-methods study with over 800 respondents in Deir-ez-Zor and Raqqa.
Case Details
Type: Article
Year: 2022
Themes: Perception, Reintegration, ISIL
Region: Northeast Syria (Raqqa, Deir-ez-Zor)
Status: Read full article
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The Story
Following the December 2020 release of 7,500–8,000 Syrian Islamic State combatants and their families from Al-Hol back to Deir-ez-Zor and Raqqa, MECS undertook a study to assess the extent to which these households were actually reintegrating — and how they were being received by the communities they returned to.
The study targeted over 800 respondents — former combatants, tribal leaders and community members — and combined public opinion surveys, key informant interviews and secondary data review. The findings, published as the third in a three-part series, surfaced a more layered perception landscape than the prevailing narrative had suggested.
What MECS Did
Most former combatant households MECS encountered shared two structural characteristics: 71% were female-headed, with the male breadwinner killed, missing, detained or severely injured; and average family size was smaller (5.1 members) than the local Syrian average of 6.3 — a function of war exposure rather than choice.
Community perception was more supportive than expected. 33% reported a negative image of former combatants, 38% a neutral attitude, and 16% a positive one. Reasons for the positive view typically centred on the perception that local fighters had joined IS for economic or coercive rather than ideological reasons, and had not participated in atrocities. Perception of combatants’ families was even more sympathetic.
That sympathy did not extend to perceived risk: 70% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that former combatants present a long-term risk to their communities, with the figure rising to 76% when asked about combatants still detained in SDF facilities. Sons and daughters of former combatants were viewed as the largest residual risk — particularly in Raqqa, where 40% disagreed with letting them attend mainstream schools alongside their own children.
The Results
52% of former combatant families had received humanitarian assistance in the prior three months — but with a marked sub-national gap: 67% in Deir-ez-Zor versus 38% in Raqqa. The findings informed reintegration programme design and contributed to wider donor and INGO discussions on social cohesion programming in Northeast Syria.